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International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials examining the effect of ultra-processed food on energy intake and weight gain

Robinson, E.; Jones, A.; Evans, R.; Finlay, A.; Brealey, J.; Gough, T.; Cummings, J.; Fisher, E.; Jutla, M.; Morenikeji-Ibilola, E.; Norton, V.

2026-06-05 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354787 medRxiv
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Ultra-processed food (UPF) may contribute to increased energy intake and weight gain, but evidence synthesis from randomised controlled trials (RCT) is lacking. A pre-registered systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs was conducted comparing UPF with less processed food (LPF) on energy intake and/or body weight in humans. Secondary analyses (meta-regression and sub-group) examined effects of UPF on appetite sensations, eating rate, palatability and considered the role of nutrient profile in explaining results. Ten eligible studies were included. UPF trial arms tended to have higher energy intake (standardised mean differences [SMDs]=0.18-0.44), but statistical significance varied between analytic models. Weight gain (SMD=0.65) and eating rate (SMD=0.96) were significantly greater in UPF trial arms. No significant differences in palatability, appetite sensations or energy intake later in the day were observed. Diets (UPF vs. LPF) used in trials were not matched for nutrient profile. Effects on energy intake varied if UPFs were higher (SMD=0.71) or similar (SMD=0.02) in energy density. Current RCTs are suggestive that UPFs may increase energy intake and body weight; however, results may be explained by energy density of foods used. Further research is needed to understand whether the level of processing impacts health outcomes independent to nutrient profile.

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Cross-Sectional Validation of an 8-Electrode Multi-Frequency Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) Device Against Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) for Body Composition Assessment in Indian Adults

Bheda, A.; Sharma, M.; Jokare, N.; Kapoor, S.; Chouksey, J.

2026-06-09 nutrition 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353564 medRxiv
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Background: Obesity is becoming a global health crisis, and it leads to various metabolic disorders. Body mass index fails to differentiate fat mass from lean mass and systematically misclassifies adiposity risk - a limitation particularly pronounced in South Asian adults, who exhibit characteristically elevated visceral adiposity and reduced appendicular lean mass at a normal BMI. The 2025 Lancet Commission explicitly recommends direct adiposity measurement beyond BMI for obesity diagnosis. Weight loss interventions - whether dietary, behavioural, or pharmacological - are consistently associated with concurrent reductions in both fat mass and lean mass, making body composition monitoring essential beyond scale weight alone. Although DEXA is globally accepted as a gold standard for body composition analysis, the accessibility of DEXA is limited, particularly in resource-constrained low and middle-income countries such as India. BIA devices are a convenient low-cost option to DEXA and can be used for body composition analysis more frequently than a DEXA scan to provide longitudinal data. The aim of this study is to validate 8 electrode BIA devices as a viable alternative to DEXA scan for the South Asian population. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional validation study was conducted following ethics committee approval, with a priori sample size estimation ( = 0.05, power = 80%). Fifty-eight healthy adults (n=58) underwent three BIA measurements and one DEXA scan each. To ensure statistical independence, the three BIA readings per participant were averaged, yielding 58 final measurements for validation. Body fat percentage, lean mass and fat mass were evaluated using Python with statistical analyses like Bland Altman analysis, Pearson correlation, ICC and regression analysis. Results: In this BIA vs DEXA study, the Pearson correlation was strong across all three outcomes (fat%: r = 0.97; fat mass: r = 0.98; lean mass: r = 0.96), with ICC (2,1) values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.91 confirming excellent absolute agreement. Mean absolute error was 3.40% for fat percentage, 1.96 kg for fat mass, and 3.37 kg for lean mass. BIA systematically underestimated body fat percentage (bias -1.96%, 95% CI: -2.91% to -1.01%; LoA: -9.04% to +5.12%) and fat mass (bias -0.72 kg, 95% CI: -1.38 to -0.07 kg; LoA: -5.59 to +4.14 kg), while overestimating lean mass by +3.08 kg (95% CI: +2.34 to +3.82 kg; LoA: -2.46 to +8.62 kg). Conclusions: The 8-electrode BIA device shows clinically acceptable agreement with DEXA for body composition assessment in healthy Indian adults. It offers a radiation-free, cost-effective, accessible, and portable alternative to DEXA, making it suitable for longitudinal monitoring and trend detection. The device is particularly valuable for obesity screening and for tracking body composition changes during weight loss interventions at the population level, addressing the critical need for accessible body composition assessment in resource-limited settings.

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Tune In or Take the Stage? A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing After-School Music and Theatre Training with Neuroimaging Outcomes for Youth

Jamey, K.; Herschel, E.; Noel, C.; Villanueva, J.; Reyes, M.; Hsu, E.; Ilari, B.; Mack, W.; Luo, S.; Habibi, A.

2026-06-05 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354844 medRxiv
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Introduction: While growing evidence suggests that music training supports child development, few long-term randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have rigorously tested these claims. Moreover, it remains unclear whether the benefits are confined to music-specific domains or extend to higher-order cognitive functions such as inhibitory control (IC), a core executive function associated with long-term outcomes in academic achievement, career success, socio-emotional health, and physical well-being. This paper presents the protocol for the Extracurricular Activity and Child Early Learning and Development (EXCEL) trial, an RCT designed to assess the feasibility of a long-term music training program focusing on the brain and behavioral correlates of IC. Methods: A total of 126 children, aged 6 to 8 years and residing in neighborhoods with limited resources in Los Angeles, were individually randomized to either a music (intervention) or theatre (active control) after-school program. Both programs were delivered over 24 months by established community arts organizations. Eligibility criteria included: average intellectual functioning, no major medical or psychiatric conditions, and MRI eligibility. Children with prior formal music training exceeding six months or severe hearing impairment were excluded. Before the intervention began, all participants completed baseline behavioral and neuroimaging assessments. The primary trial aim was to assess the effects of extended music training, relative to theatre training, on changes in measures of IC (i.e., Go/No-Go task and delayed gratification) and related neural functional activation. A secondary interim aim of the trial was to evaluate the feasibility of conducting a long-term RCT of music education in a first cohort, measured by participant retention, adherence to the program, willingness to continue at the 12-month mark, and fidelity. Progress: Recruitment, screening, baseline testing, randomization, and program enrollment began in August 2022, and after-school programming began in October 2022. The randomized interventions and all data for the first cohort (N = 42) have been collected. Intervention and active control programs for a second cohort are ongoing and will end in Fall 2026. Discussion: This paper reports the EXCEL trial protocol and provides feasibility estimates for implementing a long-term randomized controlled trial of music training in real-world, community-based settings with children. While similar neuroimaging RCTs are currently underway in Europe, the EXCEL trial is among the first in the United States to integrate longitudinal neuroimaging with arts intervention. Findings will inform the viability of scaling such programs and contribute to our understanding of how sustained music engagement may influence the development of inhibitory control circuitry in childhood.

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WELL-ED: Wellbeing and Education linkages in school-aged children - A protocol for a population-based register study and survey of adolescents

Kosola, S.; Salonen, S.; Miettinen, J.; Horhammer, I.; Impio, A.-R.; Kumpulainen, S. M.; Sergejeff, J.; Numari, S.; Laitinen-Parkkonen, P.; Tapola-Haapala, M.; Aaltio, E.; Thorn, L.

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355053 medRxiv
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Introduction Education is a core social determinant of health for children and adolescents. Unfortunately, academic achievement, health, and wellbeing of adolescents have decreased in many developed countries in the past decade. The purpose of the Wellbeing and Education linkages in school-aged children (WELL-ED) study is to examine associations of school absences and academic achievement with use of school-based and community-based health and social welfare services. In addition, we will assess user experiences and multi-sector services pathways of school-aged children for a better understanding of how the service system could respond to the needs of children. Methods and analysis WELL-ED is a large population-based study that combines register data on school absences and educational support from municipalities with register data on healthcare and social service use collected from wellbeing services counties in Finland. The study cohort includes all children who attended mandatory education in public schools in Southern Finland in school year 2023-2024. A smaller cohort of adolescents in school year 8 was invited to complete a user experience survey. The primary outcomes of this study are related to equity of service use. Ethics and dissemination The Regional Committee on Medical Research Ethics of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District (2803/2024) has approved the WELL-ED study protocol. For the survey, adolescents in year 8 and parents of adolescents younger than 15 provided informed consent. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, summaries will be sent to participating municipalities and wellbeing services counties and press releases will be written on key findings.

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Serum Cotinine and Wrist-Worn Ambient Light Exposure Patterns in U.S. Adults: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of NHANES 2011-2014

Wong, A.; Lee, C. W.; Park, A.; Yin, L.; Choi, Y.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354759 medRxiv
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Background. Tobacco smoke exposure, quantified by serum cotinine, is associated with cardiovascular, metabolic, and sleep-related health risks. The relationship between biomarker-verified tobacco smoke exposure and objectively measured, free-living wrist-worn ambient light patterns has not been examined in a nationally representative U.S. adult sample. Methods. We analyzed NHANES 2011-2014 cross-sectional data from 6,937 adults aged >20 years with valid serum cotinine and wrist-worn Physical Activity Monitor (PAM) ambient light data. Seven light outcomes were modeled using survey-weighted linear regression with log2(cotinine+1) as the continuous exposure across four covariate adjustment levels. Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction was applied across the 7 outcomes within each model. Results. In Model 2 (adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, poverty-income ratio, BMI, and survey cycle; N = 6,350), higher serum cotinine was associated with significantly higher nighttime light (beta = +0.024, 95% CI: 0.010, 0.038; p-FDR = 0.014) and lower evening light (beta = -0.031, 95% CI: -0.055, -0.008; p-FDR = 0.042). In exploratory behavioral models without alcohol (Model 3a; N = 5,766), both nighttime and evening associations remained FDR-significant. After additional adjustment for alcohol, which substantially reduced the sample due to 37.6% missingness (Model 3b; N = 3,866), the nighttime association attenuated below the FDR threshold, while the evening association remained FDR-significant. Categorical analyses showed progressively higher nighttime light across cotinine groups, and a hypothesis-generating sex interaction was identified (p-interaction = 0.001). Conclusions. Higher serum cotinine concentrations were associated with higher nighttime and lower evening ambient light after sociodemographic adjustment. Attenuation after behavioral adjustment and the cross-sectional design preclude causal inference. Longitudinal studies with formal mediation analyses are needed to clarify the temporal ordering and mechanisms linking tobacco smoke exposure, smoking-related behaviors, and personal light-dark cycle patterns.

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Inequalities in physical fitness in children with hearing loss: a systematic review and meta-analysis with implications for inclusive physical education and school curriculum

Diaz-Franco, M. V.; Caniuqueo-Vargas, A.; Lasekan, O. A.; Castillo-Sarmiento, C. A.; Rodriguez-Martin, B.

2026-06-09 otolaryngology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355131 medRxiv
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Background: Childhood and adolescent hearing loss affects not only communication and cognitive development but also motor skills and school participation. Consequently, it generates inequalities in learning and educational inclusion. Nevertheless, no systematic review has yet analyzed these differences from an inclusive education perspective. Methods: A systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA guidelines and registered in PROSPERO. Observational studies comparing physical fitness between children and adolescents with hearing loss and their hearing peers were included. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle--Ottawa Scale, and standardized effect sizes were calculated with a random-effects model. Results: Five studies (n=404) were analyzed. Findings revealed significant differences in strength, agility, speed, and balance. Moreover, the meta-analysis showed a large standardized effect favoring hearing children (ES=-2.35; 95% CI: -3.34 to -1.37). Conclusions: Children and adolescents with hearing loss present significantly lower physical fitness, which may affect the planning of physical education activities if their capacities are misinterpreted. Implementing inclusive and adapted strategies within the school curriculum is essential to ensure equal opportunities, improve physical fitness, and promote educational equity.

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Improved water access may not reduce women's time burdens: Evidence from Kenya and Honduras

Sinharoy, S.; Mink, T.; Ogutu, E. A.; Patrick, M.; Nuncio, M. d. C. A.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Oglesby, H.; Ngo, C. P.; Antonio, S.; Medina Lopez, E. R.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Caruso, B. A.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354805 medRxiv
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Women's disproportionate responsibility for unpaid domestic and care work, including water collection, remains a barrier to gender equality globally and may constrain women's ability to engage in income-generating activities. We compared women's and men's time use in rural Kenya and Honduras and assessed whether women's time spent on water collection and income-generating activities differed between communities that had or had not received an improved water source from World Vision. We also examined the measurement of time-use agency among women and men. In-person surveys were conducted in July-August 2024 with 95 participants (48 women, 47 men) in six Kenyan communities and 102 participants (53 women, 49 men) in six Honduran communities. Surveys included a 24-hour time-use recall module and items on time-use agency. Analyses compared time use by gender and by community intervention status (improved vs. not yet improved water supply), and confirmatory factor analysis assessed the validity of the time-use agency measure. Women in both study sites spent substantially more time than men on unpaid domestic and care work activities, including cooking, cleaning, laundry, and caregiving. In Kenya, women also spent significantly more time collecting water. Men spent more time sleeping (Kenya), on paid work (Honduras), unpaid agricultural work (both settings), and traveling (both settings). Across both countries, there were no significant differences between intervention and comparison communities in women's time spent on water collection or income-generating activities. In Kenya, most respondents reported high influence over their time, and six items showed strong validity for measuring instrumental time-use agency. Women's time burdens remained high even in communities that had received improved water sources, including at the household level. Our results suggest that more transformative water infrastructure, combined with interventions that address gendered social norms, may be needed to meaningfully reduce women's domestic work burden and support their economic empowerment.

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Education/training for health workers/students on inclusive and gender-affirmative care for trans and gender-diverse people: a systematic review

Xia, J.; Zhu, Z.; Zhang, G.; Shen, Q.; Su, E.; Schoones, J.; Arcelus, J.; Hu, T.; Xu, M.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, Z.; Ye, Z.; Yao, X.

2026-06-05 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354880 medRxiv
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Introduction: Trans and gender-diverse (TGD) individuals often face stigma and discrimination in healthcare, hindering access to gender-affirming care. Training healthcare workers on TGD health aims to foster inclusive and affirming care practices. This review aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of TGD health training programs for healthcare workers. Methods: This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023443288). We searched 13 databases for studies up to March 2024, with no language/geographic restrictions. Ten reviewers screened studies in pairs, resolving discrepancies via discussion or third-reviewer input. We included randomized/non-randomized comparative and before-after studies for quantitative analysis (mean difference [MD] or standardized mean difference [SMD] with 95% CIs) and qualitative/mixed-methods studies for thematic synthesis. Evidence certainty was assessed using GRADE (quantitative) and GRADE-CERQual (qualitative). Outcomes included knowledge, attitudes, skills, discrimination, competence, comfort, TGD quality of life, and stakeholder preferences. Results: From 20,188 records, 85 studies were included. Training appears to have improved healthcare workers' knowledge (SMD=1.08, 95% CI 0.78-1.39), attitudes (SMD=0.22, 95% CI 0.05-0.39), skills (SMD=0.96, 95% CI 0.56-1.37), competence (SMD=0.55, 95% CI 0.29-0.81), and comfort (SMD=0.69, 95% CI 0.17-1.21). Qualitative analysis of 130 findings identified 18 categories and four key themes on intervention design and impact. Conclusions: TGD training programs may enhance health workers' knowledge, attitudes, skills, competence, and comfort. Well-structured, interactive, and inclusive programs showed promise, but evidence certainty was low with limited follow-up. Further high-quality research is needed to confirm these findings.

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A risk-of-contagion index using a Bayesian based model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

Corona-Moreno, R.; Acuna-Zegarra, M. A.; Santana-Cibrian, M.; Velasco-Hernandez, J. X.

2026-06-10 health policy 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355274 medRxiv
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, limited testing capacity and reporting delays complicated epidemic surveillance and decision-making in Mexico. We calibrated \textit{covidestim}, a Bayesian nowcasting model, to estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections from reported cases and deaths using Mexican surveillance data. Disease-progression distribution priors were calibrated using Mexico City records and validated through comparisons with national seroprevalence surveys, hospitalization data, and annual reported severe-case rates across all states. Using the reconstructed estimates of active infections, we implemented an event-based risk framework that quantifies the probability of encountering at least one infectious individual in gatherings of different sizes. This probability was subsequently translated into a four-level epidemiological traffic-light indicator and computed at both state and municipality levels. The resulting estimates revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity that is obscured by state-level aggregation, particularly in states with marked differences between urban and rural municipalities. To evaluate consistency with public-health indicators, we compared the proposed risk classification with the official Mexican epidemiological traffic-light system, considering interpretable gathering sizes relevant to public-health decision making. Weekly reports derived from this framework were delivered to policymakers in the State of Queretaro in Mexico, as an anticipation tool for school reopening and public-space management. This demonstrates that this Bayesian reconstruction of infections combined with event-based risk metrics can provide an interpretable and generalizable municipality-level complement to routine surveillance systems, particularly in regions with limited testing capacity and heterogeneous local transmission dynamics.

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Arts and Cultural Engagement and Multidimensional Well-being in Later Life

Noguchi, T.; Erhua, S.; Hayashi, T.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354582 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: Arts and cultural engagement may contribute to well-being in later life. However, evidence from longitudinal studies from Asia, including Japan, remains limited. This study examined the association of arts and cultural engagement with subsequent multidimensional well-being among older adults in Japan, one of the fastest-aging countries. Research Design and Methods: This longitudinal study used panel data from 354 individuals aged 60 and older (mean age 74.0 years; 78.6% women) who completed self-administered questionnaires by mail between 2022 and 2024. The PERMA-Profiler was used to assess five multifaceted aspects of psychological well-being: positive emotion, engagement, relationships, meaning, and accomplishment. Frequencies of arts and cultural engagement at baseline were measured for active (e.g., activities by individuals and participation in groups, such as music and painting) and receptive (e.g., visiting museums, galleries, and theaters) forms. Results: Multivariable linear regression analysis, adjusted for the covariates including baseline PERMA scores, showed that higher frequencies of active engagement were positively associated with higher PERMA scores for all domains. Higher frequencies of receptive engagement were associated with the domains of positive emotion, meaning, and accomplishment, but not clearly associated with engagement and relationships. Restricted cubic spline analyses suggested clearer positive frequency-response patterns for active engagement than for receptive engagement. Discussion and Implications: Arts and cultural engagement, both active and receptive forms, was associated with subsequent multiple aspects of well-being in later life. These findings suggest the importance of ensuring access to arts and cultural opportunities for older adults to create, participate, and connect.

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Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

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Seasonality, source type, and women's water labor: A longitudinal mixed-methods study in Kenya and Honduras

Mink, T.; Ogutu, E.; Patrick, M.; Sinharoy, S.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Macler, A.; Ngo, C. P.; Oglesby, H.; Bendit, O.; White, J.; Antonio, S.; Ramos, G.; Roldan Medina Lopez, E.; Atandi, E.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Caruso, B. A.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355008 medRxiv
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Women shoulder the majority of water collection labor globally, yet how their water collection and water-related work experiences may change over time or by water source type remains insufficiently understood. We conducted a longitudinal, mixed-methods study in rural Kenya and Honduras to understand how women's experiences collecting water and performing water-related work varied between (a) two time points, (b) improved and unimproved water source types, and (c) water source location. Data were collected in 2023 and 2024 using interviews, observation, GPS-enabled watches, and scales to measure time and distance traveled, water weight and volume carried, and calories expended. 133 women participated in data collection (66 Kenya, 67 Honduras). We compared women's experience data by time point (2023 vs. 2024), source type (improved vs. unimproved), and source location (off-premises vs. on-premises) (t-test, Mann-Whitney U test). We also mapped participants' routes and activities to show which sources were visited, when, and for what activities. In Kenya, mean water collection time, distance, and caloric expenditure were significantly lower and water volume was significantly higher in 2024 when there were unexpected rains compared to 2023 when there was a persistent drought. When comparing source types during the 2023 drought, journeys to improved sources took significantly less time and energy and covered less distance than journeys to unimproved sources. These differences were not observed during the rainy conditions of 2024 when unimproved sources were closer and more accessible. In Honduras, water collection and water work burdens did not differ significantly by time point or source type. We found women with on-premises water access to still expend considerable time and caloric expenditure engaging in water work within their household compounds. Findings from Kenya suggest that water infrastructure improvements can reduce women's water collection burdens, though benefits may depend on and vary by season and source location. Findings from Honduras show that water labor does not end once water is in the household. Rather, substantial time and energy are expended carrying out water-related work even when sources are on premises, suggesting that efforts to assess water labor need to extend beyond collection alone. To meaningfully reduce burdens and ensure improved water sources are utilized during all seasons, initiatives need to consider source location, seasonal variability, and work beyond collection. Evaluations to assess infrastructure impacts on women's labor and well-being are needed and long overdue.

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Predictors of Road Safety behaviors among Boda-Boda Operators and their passengers in Kampala: A Mixed-Methods Study

Ainembabazi, R.; Kimuli, D.; Murami, T.; Wafula, S. T.; mgeyi, E.; Kwesiga, J. B.; Kibingo, P.; Mugumya, I.; Atulomah, N. O.; Nsubuga, D.

2026-06-07 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354085 medRxiv
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Background Despite existing road safety regulations, commercial motorcycle riders commonly referred to as "Boda Bodas" in Uganda continue to experience high rates of injuries due to road traffic accidents resulting from unsafe riding behaviours, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality among both riders and passengers. Safe riding behaviours are less well documented, as well as factors associated with the observance of those behaviours. This study aimed to determine factors associated with safe riding behaviors for both boda-boda riders and their passengers in Kampala Central Division. Methods A cross-sectional survey study design was conducted using a convergent parallel mixed-methods design guided by the PRECEDE model. Quantitative data were collected from 424 riders through structured questionnaires administered by trained research assistants. Binary Logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of safe road riding behaviors, and Adjusted Odds ratios (AORs) have been reported. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, with a p-value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Qualitative data were collected simultaneously with quantitative data through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 10 passengers to capture perceptions of rider behaviors and safety practices. Thematic analysis was applied, and results were triangulated to highlight convergences and divergences between quantitative and qualitative findings, providing a comprehensive understanding of safety determinants for both riders and passengers. Results Of the 424 riders (mean rider age was 29.56 {+/-} 5.71), overall, 276 (65.1%) of riders exhibited unsafe riding behaviors. In the bivariate analysis with Logistic regression, predisposing factors (education, marital status, religion, and willingness to obey traffic regulations), and reinforcing factors (family encouragement) were significantly associated with safe riding behaviors. However, in the adjusted model, secondary (AOR=0.50; 95% CI:0.30-0.85) and post-secondary education (AOR=0.57; 95% CI:0.33-0.98), being married (AOR=0.56; 95% CI:0.34-0.91), Christian religion (AOR=2.98; 95% CI:1.63-5.47), willingness to obey traffic regulations (AOR=0.41; 95% CI:0.24-0.70), union advocacy (AOR=1.76; 95% CI:1.03-3.01), and well-maintained roads (AOR=1.65; 95% CI:1.07-2.55) were significant predictors of safe riding behaviors. Qualitative interviews further highlighted barriers to safety, including a lack of helmets, over-speeding, disregard for traffic regulations, and poor road infrastructure. Conclusions Rider and passenger safety is still low, interdependent, and influenced by multiple factors. Integrated interventions focusing on education, stronger families, religious affiliations, union safety advocacy, and stricter enforcement of traffic regulations are vital for enhancing safety for both riders and passengers.

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Integrated cardiometabolic and nutritional risk profiling identifies pregnancy loss as a marker of systemic metabolic vulnerability

Agarwal, T.; Namburu, J. R.; Kachroo, P.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354910 medRxiv
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Background: Pregnancy loss has important implications for womens health. Although maternal age is a well-established risk factor, the contribution of routinely measured cardiometabolic and behavioral markers at population-scale remains incompletely characterized. Objective: To examine associations between cardiometabolic, nutritional, and behavioral risk markers and pregnancy loss among U.S. women of reproductive age. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 4,842 U.S. women aged 20-44 years with [&ge;]1 pregnancy using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2013-2023). Pregnancy loss was defined as [&ge;]1 prior miscarriages. Exposures included body mass index, smoking exposure (cotinine), lipid biomarkers, vitamin D and folate, and a composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk score. Survey-weighted logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals, with bootstrap resampling for predictor robustness. Results: The weighted prevalence of pregnancy loss was 23%. Higher odds of pregnancy loss were associated with increasing age (aOR per year=1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), Non-Hispanic Black race (aOR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.00-1.74), overweight (aOR=1.56; 95% CI: 1.16-2.11), obesity (aOR=2.06; 95% CI: 1.39-3.05), and smoking (aOR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.19-2.10). Adverse lipid profiles, particularly elevated triglycerides (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.16-2.90) and high low-density lipoprotein (aOR=2.97; 95% CI: 1.45-6.61), were independently associated with pregnancy loss. Vitamin D/folate were not stable predictors. Higher composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk scores were observed among women with pregnancy loss (P=0.026). Conclusion: Pregnancy loss clustered with adverse cardiometabolic and behavioral risk markers in a nationally representative population. These findings highlight pregnancy loss as a marker of broader metabolic vulnerability supporting the need for longitudinal studies and cardiometabolic profiling to inform preconception care and risk stratification.

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End of Average. Understanding Overweight & Obesity: Rationale and Design.

Vanbrabant, E.; Roefs, A.; Goossens, G.; Lemmens, L.; Shapovalova, Y.; Hesen, J.; Mironiuc, C.

2026-06-08 primary care research 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354975 medRxiv
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Background: Obesity is globally recognized as a complex, multifactorial chronic disease, with biological, psychological, environmental and behavioural factors involved in both disease pathogenesis and maintenance. Although previous group-based studies demonstrated involvement of each of these factors, there is large inter-individual variability in the factors contributing to disease development as well as intervention outcomes, causing limited translatability to the individual level. This heterogeneity in treatment effectiveness might be due to differential causal and maintenance factors of obesity. To enable the transition from a one-size-fits-all approach to a more personalized approach for individuals with overweight or obesity, this study aims to investigate if and how the degree of weight loss and changes in daily life behaviour after a combined lifestyle intervention depend on individual baseline profiles comprising of person characteristics, biological, psychological, environmental and behavioural factors. Methods: This study will include 600 individuals varying in BMI, 200 participants with a healthy BMI (18.5-24.9kg/m2), 200 with overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9kg/m2), and 200 with obesity (BMI [&ge;]30.0kg/m2). For all participants, a comprehensive individual baseline profile is created, including person characteristics, biological, psychological, environmental and behavioural factors. A clustering method is applied to identify clusters of participants with similar characteristics. Next, we examine if and how these clusters are linked to bodyweight indicators measured at baseline, and how they relate to daily lifestyle behaviour, as measured by ecological momentary assessment (EMA) using a smartphone app and sensor technology (3-week measurements). Individuals with overweight or obesity will be randomized to the intensive lifestyle intervention or a lifestyle information condition, to determine if treatment response can be predicted based on cluster characteristics, how daily lifestyle behaviour changes after an intervention, and how changes in daily lifestyle behaviour relate to treatment response. Discussion: The End of Average study aims to characterize a large set of individuals varying in body weight to predict intervention effectiveness measured as changes in body weight indicators and in daily lifestyle behaviours. If reliable predictors of treatment success can be identified, these can be applied in personalized lifestyle interventions to improve lifestyle behaviour, body weight management and overall health.

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Physical activity, fatty acids, and MASLD risk: Behavioural and metabolic factors jointly shaping liver health in populations

Chen, F.; You, R.; Liu, Y.; Yin, Y.; Liu, A.; Deng, L.; Xie, B.; Fan, J.; Wang, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354982 medRxiv
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Background and Aims: MASLD has become the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally. Although MVPA and plasma fatty acids have been individually studied in relation to metabolic health, their independent and combined associations with MASLD incidence remain unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations. Methods: This study included 51,717 UK Biobank participants free of liver disease at baseline, with MVPA measured using wrist-worn accelerometers and plasma fatty acids quantified via NMR. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models and restricted cubic splines were used. Results: Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 472 incident cases were identified. In fully adjusted models, meeting recommended MVPA levels together with higher n-6 PUFA concentrations was associated with a 71% lower risk (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.45). The MVPA-MASLD association was nonlinear, with risk reduction plateauing at approximately 189 minutes per week. Higher n-6 PUFA was associated with reduced risk, whereas n-3 PUFA showed no significant association. Conclusions: These findings suggest that behavioral and metabolic factors may jointly influence MASLD risk. Further studies in diverse populations are needed to confirm these associations.

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Alcohol Consumption Patterns and Sociodemographic Correlates Among US Adults with Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of All of Us and NHANES

yang, q.; yu, j.; zhao, h.; zou, m.; sun, y.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355052 medRxiv
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This cross-sectional study aimed to examine the prevalence of alcohol use and its sociodemographic correlates among adults with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We analyzed data from two large US cohorts: the All of Us Research Program (2017-2023) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2016). Both CVD diagnosis and past-year alcohol consumption were self-reported. Risky drinking was defined as exceeding moderate drinking or binge drinking (All of Us), or moderate/heavy drinking (NHANES). Multivariable logistic regression was used to exam associations with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Among 32,788 current drinkers with CVD in the All of Us cohort, 15% exceeded moderate drinking thresholds and 26% reported binge drinking. Older age, female sex, and higher socioeconomic status were inversely associated with risky drinking, while smoking was positively associated. In NHANES, moderate drinking rose from 47.3% to 57.2% and heavy drinking from 6.7% to 7.2%. Moderate/heavy drinking was positively associated with age <65 but inversely with age [&ge;]65. Higher education and income were linked to moderate drinking, while current smoking was strongly associated with heavy drinking. These results highlight the need to integrate holistic screening for alcohol use, tobacco use, and social context into routine cardiovascular care.

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Bias from small-count suppression in county-level cancer disparity estimates: a calibrated simulation study

gahan, k.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355021 medRxiv
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Abstract Background. Area-level cancer disparities are routinely estimated from public county data in which rates based on small counts (fewer than 16 cases or deaths) are suppressed. Analysts typically drop suppressed counties (complete-case analysis). Because suppression depends on case counts tied to population size and demographic composition, this missingness may be informative, but its effect on the disparity estimate has not, to our knowledge, been quantified. Methods. In a cross-sectional ecological study of 3,143 U.S. counties (analytic sample 3,018 with computable exposure) using one frozen public release of NCI State Cancer Profiles incidence and mortality data and ACS 2018-2022 5-year data, we estimated the most- versus least-deprived ICE(race+income) quintile rate ratio (RR) and rate difference for female breast, stomach, and cervix cancers under four suppression-handling methods: complete-case, available-case, bounding, and model-based small-area estimation. We characterized which counties were erased, and, following the ADEMP framework, ran a Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 replicates per cell; Monte Carlo standard error of bias approximately 0.0025) calibrated to the release to measure bias against a known truth. Analyses were pre-registered. Results. The suppressed fraction rose with rarity: 7.4% of counties for breast, 61.3% for stomach, and 75.7% for cervix incidence. Suppression was concentrated in the most-deprived quintile (cervix, 81.8% suppressed vs 63.8% least-deprived) and overwhelmingly removed rural rather than minority residents (cervix: 81% of the rural but 9% of the minority population erased). For breast (little suppression) the RR was 0.87 (95% CI 0.85-0.89) and identical across methods; for cervix incidence the complete-case RR (1.56) exceeded the model-based estimate (1.50), and for cervix mortality (91% suppressed) complete-case (1.86) exceeded model-based (1.56) by 16% with a wide bounding interval (1.88-2.62). In calibrated simulation, population-weighted complete-case bias was small (less than 2%) at the observed deprivation-county-size correlation and grew with rarity, threshold, and unweighted aggregation; its direction was conditional, becoming positive (over-estimation) as deprived counties became smaller. Conclusions. Complete-case handling of suppressed counties over-estimates rare-cancer area disparities relative to methods that retain them, while silently erasing most of the rural and most-deprived communities the estimate is meant to represent. The effect is negligible for common cancers and grows with rarity. Public-data disparity analyses should report the suppressed fraction and use bounded or model-based estimates by default. Keywords: cancer disparities; small-count suppression; Index of Concentration at the Extremes; informative missingness; small-area estimation; rural health.

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Early life multidimensional disadvantage of South Australian children: a whole-population linked data study

Kalamkarian, A.; Pilkington, R. M.; Lynch, J.; Mittinty, M. N.; Malvaso, C.; Hawkins, K.; Pharo, H.; Beck, K.; Chittleborough, C. R.

2026-06-05 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354860 medRxiv
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Background: Whole-population linked administrative data platforms provide an opportunity to generate evidence on early life multidimensional disadvantage to inform resourcing and service provision to families with complex needs. Methods: We used individual-level de-identified data from nine administrative data sources included in the Better Evidence Better Outcomes Linked Data (BEBOLD) platform. The population included all children born in South Australia between 2004-2011 (n=143,083), and their parents. We described the prevalence and distribution of multiple disadvantages affecting children from the 12 months before birth to age 5. Eleven domains of parental disadvantage were created: economic, education, access to services, mental health, substance misuse, smoking during pregnancy, domestic and family violence, health, child protection contact, justice system contact, and death. We investigated the concordance of our measure with an area-level socioeconomic measure used in government reporting. Results: One in two children (48%) were exposed to at least one disadvantage domain, and one in seven (14%) were exposed to three or more domains before age five. Economic disadvantage was most prevalent, affecting one in four (27%) children, of which 75% were exposed to additional forms of disadvantage. Substance misuse, domestic and family violence, and justice system contact were the least likely domains to occur in isolation. Only 54.4% who experienced five or more disadvantage domains were classified in the area-level socioeconomic measure's 'most disadvantaged' quintile. Conclusion: Early life exposure to parental disadvantage can be highly multidimensional. Measurement across different systems is important for informing coordinated service provision for families with complex needs.

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Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational age and macrosomic live births in low- and middle-income subnational birth cohorts: An individual participant meta-analysis (2000-2017)

Kirakoya Samadoulougou, F.; Barche, B.; Ukwishaka, J.; Subedi, S.; Erchick, D. J.; Suarez Idueta, L.; Hamer, D. H.; Semrau, K. E. A.; Hamomba, F. M.; Banda, B.; Manasyan, A.; Pry, J. M.; Maleta, K.; Ashorn, U.; Schmiegelow, C.; Hjort, L.; Minja, D. T. R.; Lusingu, J. P. A.; Freitas da Silveira, M.; Buffarini, R.; Baqui, A. H.; Khanam, R.; Ahmed, S.; Zhu, Z.; Zeng, L.; Cheng, Y.; Lachat, C.; Roberfroid, D.; Huybregts, L.; Toe, L. C.; Tielsch, J. M.; Khatry, S. K.; Mullany, L. C.; Ohuma, E. O.; Blencowe, H.; Katz, J.; Lee, A. C. C.; Black, R. E.; Hazel, E. A.

2026-06-06 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354851 medRxiv
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Background Large-for-gestational-age (LGA) and macrosomic newborns are at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, including death, yet the burden of neonatal mortality associated with these conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest their prevalence will rise, remains poorly quantified. In this study, we quantify the neonatal mortality risk associated with LGA and macrosomia from 16 subnational birth cohorts in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Methods and findings This is an individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and relative risks among LGA infants (>90th and >97th percentile birth weight-for-gestational-age using INTERGROWTH-21st) versus appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA, 10th-90th percentile) infants. Macrosomic ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) neonates were compared with those weighing 2500 g-3999g. Missing birth weights were imputed using recalibration and multiple imputation methods. We used random effects meta-analysis to pool relative risks. Median prevalences of LGA >90th and >97th percentile were 5.3% (interquartile range 3.6-8.2) and 2.6% (IQR 1.3-4.5), respectively; macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) prevalences were 1.0% (IQR 0.3-3.1) and 0.06% (IQR 0.0, 0.30), respectively. Mortality was highest among preterm plus LGA infants (61.3 per 1000). LGA infants in the >90th percentile had over twofold increased mortality compared with appropriate-for-gestational-age infants (RR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.86-3.25), while >97th percentile infants had a higher risk (RR: 3.77; 95% CI: 2.50-5.69). Term LGA >97th percentile infants also showed elevated mortality (RR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.58-6.22). For LGA >97th percentile, the risk was higher in the early neonatal period (RR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.92-3.82) than late (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.34). There was no overall association between macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g) and neonatal mortality. Population attributable fractions were 7.2% for LGA >90th percentile and 0.4% for macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g). Conclusions Neonatal mortality risks were elevated among LGA infants in low- and middle-income countries, particularly at extreme values (>97th percentile) and during the early neonatal period. Macrosomia showed weaker, less robust associations. Although LGA prevalence is currently low ([~]5%) and contributes less to neonatal mortality than small newborns, ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest increasing prevalence. This highlights the need for strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and improved delivery planning to ensure that no population is left behind.